They aren’t dumping the money into it, and other things, like chips and Taiwan and demographics, are the big issues which have the main target from the highest of the federal government, and no one is desirous about sticking their necks out for wacky things like ‘spending a billion dollars on a single coaching run’ without specific enthusiastic endorsement from the very top. Computer hardware and AI chipmaker Nvidia, for example, lost almost $600 billion of its market capitalization Monday, and other U.S. Deepseek free-R1’s huge effectivity gain, cost financial savings and equivalent performance to the top U.S. Using the FDPR reflects the truth that, regardless that the country has modified the product by painting their flag on it, it continues to be fundamentally a U.S. Scale CEO Alexandr Wang says the Scaling section of AI has ended, although AI has "genuinely hit a wall" by way of pre-training, however there continues to be progress in AI with evals climbing and models getting smarter as a result of post-coaching and check-time compute, and we have now entered the Innovating section the place reasoning and other breakthroughs will lead to superintelligence in 6 years or much less.
1. the scientific culture of China is ‘mafia’ like (Hsu’s time period, not mine) and focused on legible easily-cited incremental analysis, and is towards making any daring research leaps or controversial breakthroughs… This blog covers a variety of AI-related matters, including breakthroughs in machine learning, AI safety, policy implications, and detailed explorations of their latest initiatives and technologies. Dominic Cummings on AI, together with speculation that artificial voters and focus groups inside AI models are already indistinguishable from real voters. Plugin help: ChatGPT helps plugins, including net searching and code interpretation, and external plugins from developers akin to Expedia, OpenTable, Zapier, Shopify, Slack and Wolfram. Pebble watches have been extinct, so to speak, because the previous decade, and this week, PebbleOS's code was made open-supply by Google. Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi says "it’s pretty clear" that the AI scaling legal guidelines have hit a wall because they are logarithmic and although compute has increased by 100 million times previously 10 years, it could only enhance by 1000x in the subsequent decade. OpenAI SVP of Research Mark Chen outright says there isn't a wall, the GPT-model scaling is doing fantastic in addition to o1-style strategies.
There isn't any Chinese Manhattan Project. The Westerners might make the historical past books, however the Chinese will make the large bucks. Introduction: For people like me who just discover inspiration in AI, AI Salon might properly be the place to seek out likeminded… Transitioning from Greek mythology to modern-day expertise, we might have another Trojan horse, and it may be embraced and welcomed into our homes and lives just as that historical picket horse as soon as was. So, this raises an vital query for the arms race folks: for those who believe it’s Ok to race, because even if your race winds up creating the very race you claimed you have been attempting to keep away from, you are still going to beat China to AGI (which is extremely plausible, inasmuch as it is simple to win a race when just one side is racing), and you've got AGI a yr (or two at the most) before China and you supposedly "win"…
Richard Ngo continues to think about AGIs as an AGI for a given time interval - a ‘one minute AGI’ can outperform one minute of a human, with the actual craziness coming around a 1-month AGI, which he predicts for 6-15 years from now. Let the crazy Americans with their fantasies of AGI in just a few years race forward and knock themselves out, and China will stroll alongside, and scoop up the outcomes, and scale all of it out price-effectively and outcompete any Western AGI-related stuff (ie. China can just catch up just a few years later and win the real race. There is no race. Particularly, he says the Biden administration mentioned in conferences they needed ‘total management of AI’ that they would guarantee there can be solely ‘two or three huge companies’ and that it told him not to even trouble with startups. Dean Ball says that Marc refers to different rhetoric that was current in DC in 2023, but is not present… Robin Hanson says a while in the next century the economy will begin doubling every month and most people will lose their jobs so we should… Apple app store and within the top free Android apps on the Google Play Store at the time of publication.
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